〇 Dollar Yen Fall to 104.42 due to US long-term interest rate decline
〇 After that, the BOJ’s interest rate rose to 104.85 due to the possibility of clarifying room for the deep moat.
〇 US CPI slows down, Powell chairman dovish remarks fall to 104.60 level again.
〇 A chart shape that impresses the weight of the upper price with three hidden lines on the daily bar after the failure to break out of the 200-day dollar-yen line.
〇 Fundamentals also correct the dollar’s appreciation after continuing to deny tapering by Fed officials.

Overseas time review

The dollar-yen pair has a heavy upside in the foreign exchange market on Wednesday, 10th.
(1) A series of dovish remarks by US officials (Governor of Cleveland Fed Mester on 2/8 and Governor of Dallas Fed Kaplan on 2/9) and
(2) The decline in US long-term interest rates against the background of (1) above weighed on Europe. Over the morning, it fell to a low of 104.42, the first since 1/29. However,
(3) when some media reported that “the Bank of Japan may clarify that there is room for interest rates at the monetary policy decision meeting next month,” there were occasions when it rebounded until 104.85. However, after the short cover cycle, it was sluggish,
(4) the US January consumer price index (result 1.4%, forecast 1.5%, year-on-year comparison) slowed down, and
(5) dovish remarks by FRB Chairman Powell,
At the time of writing this article (as of 6:40 Cambodian time), the price has been around 104.62, while monetary policy is necessary and the rise in inflation in the next few months is not very meaningful.

Today’s outlook

The dollar-yen has continued to move dullly, with the dollar-yen temporarily falling to 104.42 (2/5 high 105.78 → 2/10 low 104.42). Technically, it is reflected in the “failure to break out” of the 200-day moving average that market participants are paying attention to (three daily hidden lines after the high price record), so the chart shape strongly impresses the weight of the upper price. We are (in the future, return selling is likely to increase at the 105 yen level).

From a fundamental perspective, the market is smoldering with tapering observations, with Cleveland Fed Governor Mester, Dallas Fed Governor Kaplan, and Fed Chairman Powell suggesting “prolonged monetary easing” and “temporary inflation tolerance.” (Emphasis is placed on the fact that even if temporary inflation is seen, it will not lead to tapering → correction of the dollar’s appreciation until last week). Based on the above, we will continue to anticipate a decline in the dollar-yen exchange rate as the main scenario.

In addition, China will be closed on Chinese New Year (2 / 11-2 / 17) today, and Japan will also be a national holiday, so Asian time is likely to be unmotivated. For an overseas time, pay attention to the number of new unemployment insurance applications in the United States.

Today’s forecast range: 104.20-104.90

Analyzed by:Mr. Naoto Arase,Independent Analyst